ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 800 PM PDT MON MAY 21 2012 WHILE THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS MORE ORGANIZED THAN SEVERAL HOURS AGO...MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER REMAINS TO THE EAST OF A LARGE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. SINCE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 30 KT. IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL SOON BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...ALTHOUGH EARLIER ASCAT AND OSCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED TO THE WEST. THIS STRUCTURE...ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF EASTERLY SHEAR...COULD SLOW THE SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE FIRST DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SITUATED NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...CAUSING SHEAR TO DIMINISH. THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS A FAST RATE OF STRENGTHENING AFTER 24 HOURS...AND ENDS UP CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AT 48 HOURS. BEYOND DAY 3...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD INCREASE AND SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER NOW...ABOUT 290/8. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK CHANGING TO NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL SPREAD GREATLY INCREASES DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS ONE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WEST ARE POSSIBLE IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AFTER DAY 3...AND LARGE ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 9.8N 101.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 10.5N 102.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 11.6N 104.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 12.7N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 13.8N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 15.8N 104.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 17.5N 103.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 18.0N 103.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:09 UTC