ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 200 AM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012 DESPITE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR...ALETTA HAS SURVIVED LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. FURTHERMORE...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND IN FACT... SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AT 0600Z. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY BECAUSE SINCE THE TIME OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH. THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...SO I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN 3-4 DAYS OR SOONER AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A LARGE DEVELOPING CIRCULATION TO ITS EAST. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY DIVERGENT...PROBABLY MEANING THAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT ALETTA OR ITS REMANTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW OF A THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WHICH ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF ALETTA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 13.8N 113.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 14.0N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 14.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1800Z 14.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0600Z 13.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z 12.5N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:04 UTC