Tropical Storm TONY

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TROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012
500 AM AST WED OCT 24 2012
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TONY HAS STRENGTHENED
A BIT THIS EVENING.  ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS SITUATED
JUST BENEATH THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...THE CLOUD CANOPY HAS EXPANDED AND
THE TOPS HAVE COOLED TO -70C.  BASED ON THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN
IMPROVEMENT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT...AND ALSO
CORRESPONDS WITH A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  THEN...TONY SHOULD COMMENCE A SPIN DOWN TREND DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS.  THE MET-9 RGB AIR MASS
IMAGERY INDICATES A COLD STABLE MID-LATITUDE AIR MASS WITH DRY
DESCENDING AIR ALOFT PRECEDING A RAPIDLY APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST IN 36
HOURS...AND AGREES WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS. DISSIPATION OF THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND THE 96 HOUR
PERIOD.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/14.  TONY IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
THIS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER IN THE STRONG
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AFTERWARD...TONY SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN BACK
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.

THE WIND RADII AT DAY 2 AND 3 HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON
INPUT FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 27.4N  47.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 28.5N  45.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 29.7N  42.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 30.7N  38.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  26/0600Z 31.9N  35.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/0600Z 36.0N  33.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
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