Hurricane SANDY
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
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HURRICANE SANDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1500 UTC SUN OCT 28 2012
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 2 21 45 62
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 2 10 40 41 23
TROPICAL STORM 49 37 44 62 37 13 9
HURRICANE 51 62 54 26 2 1 5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 47 51 42 22 2 1 3
HUR CAT 2 3 9 8 3 X X 1
HUR CAT 3 1 2 3 1 X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 70KT 70KT 60KT 40KT 30KT 25KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) 3(15)
PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 16(16) 8(24) 2(26) 1(27) 2(29)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 27(27) 7(34) 1(35) 1(36) 2(38)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)
BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
HYANNIS MA 34 X 2( 2) 37(39) 4(43) X(43) 1(44) 1(45)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X 6( 6) 39(45) 4(49) X(49) 1(50) 1(51)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 2( 2) 41(43) 7(50) 1(51) 1(52) 1(53)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
HARTFORD CT 34 X 1( 1) 42(43) 14(57) 2(59) X(59) 1(60)
HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X 6( 6) 52(58) 10(68) X(68) 1(69) X(69)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)
MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X 4( 4) 55(59) 25(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) 15(15) 16(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32)
NEW YORK CITY 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
NEWARK NJ 34 X 2( 2) 50(52) 30(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83)
NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) 11(11) 20(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32)
NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
TRENTON NJ 34 X 3( 3) 47(50) 34(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85)
TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) 13(13) 31(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45)
TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 7( 7) 55(62) 22(84) 1(85) X(85) 1(86)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) 30(30) 29(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60)
ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 32(57) 6(63) 1(64) X(64)
BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35)
BALTIMORE MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11)
DOVER DE 34 X 5( 5) 39(44) 24(68) 5(73) X(73) X(73)
DOVER DE 50 X X( X) 15(15) 31(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48)
DOVER DE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 28(54) 6(60) 1(61) X(61)
ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32)
ANNAPOLIS MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 25(44) 8(52) X(52) X(52)
WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24)
WASHINGTON DC 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 1 11(12) 37(49) 10(59) 4(63) X(63) X(63)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 21(21) 16(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21) 7(28) X(28) X(28)
RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
NORFOLK NAS 34 2 6( 8) 13(21) 4(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28)
NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
NORFOLK VA 34 3 6( 9) 12(21) 4(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
WALLOPS CDA 34 1 10(11) 28(39) 9(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51)
WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) 12(12) 12(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25)
WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 11 3(14) 1(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
WILMINGTON NC 34 4 X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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