Hurricane SANDY
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE SANDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
0300 UTC SAT OCT 27 2012
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 2 15 33
TROP DEPRESSION 1 5 9 6 7 28 35
TROPICAL STORM 68 75 69 51 47 50 26
HURRICANE 31 19 21 43 44 7 6
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 29 17 17 32 32 5 5
HUR CAT 2 1 2 3 7 9 1 1
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 3 3 X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X 1 X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 60KT 55KT 55KT 65KT 70KT 45KT 35KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 3(22)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 11(24) 3(27)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) 2(29)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 16(29) 2(31)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 20(32) 3(35)
HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 19(39) 3(42)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10)
MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 30(49) 3(52)
NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17)
NEW YORK CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 31(46) 3(49)
NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15)
NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 32(48) 4(52)
TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16)
TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 32(57) 3(60)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 2(25)
ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 29(39) 5(44)
BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12)
BALTIMORE MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 30(50) 5(55)
DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 3(21)
DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 28(40) 5(45)
ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13)
ANNAPOLIS MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 24(34) 6(40)
WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10)
WASHINGTON DC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 27(55) 4(59)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 3(25)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 15(26) 3(29)
RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 13(32) 3(35)
NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10)
NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 12(32) 3(35)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10)
NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 23(48) 4(52)
WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20)
WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 12(26) 3(29) 1(30)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 7(17) 2(19) X(19)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
CHARLESTON SC 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
MAYPORT NS 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
JACKSONVILLE 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ORLANDO FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PATRICK AFB 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
FT PIERCE FL 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
W PALM BEACH 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MIAMI FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FT MYERS FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ANDROS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN SALVADOR 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: