Hurricane SANDY
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE SANDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1500 UTC WED OCT 24 2012
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 1 2 4 5 9
TROP DEPRESSION X 3 8 11 13 14 18
TROPICAL STORM 14 60 67 61 57 56 53
HURRICANE 86 36 24 26 26 25 20
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 76 32 20 21 21 20 17
HUR CAT 2 9 4 3 4 3 4 2
HUR CAT 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 75KT 65KT 60KT 60KT 60KT 60KT 60KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 1(10)
MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 10(31) X(31) X(31)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 3( 3) 28(31) 16(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ANDROS 34 1 6( 7) 31(38) 4(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) 10(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 34 2 33(35) 44(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X 5( 5) 34(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
SAN SALVADOR 34 1 11(12) 31(43) 3(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MAYAGUANA 34 2 8(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
GRAND TURK 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CIENFUEGOS 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CAMAGUEY 34 4 23(27) 2(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
CAMAGUEY 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 65 14(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 5 18(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONTEGO BAY 34 31 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
KINGSTON 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
KINGSTON 50 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
KINGSTON 64 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
LES CAYES 34 17 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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