Tropical Storm SANDY
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM SANDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1500 UTC TUE OCT 23 2012
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 2 4 6 7 8
TROP DEPRESSION 2 3 6 16 13 12 15
TROPICAL STORM 85 52 46 56 55 56 53
HURRICANE 14 45 46 24 25 25 24
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 12 39 36 19 21 20 21
HUR CAT 2 1 5 7 4 3 4 2
HUR CAT 3 1 2 3 1 1 1 1
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 65KT 70KT 60KT 60KT 60KT 60KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) 1(24)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 8(40) X(40)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 28(36) 5(41) X(41)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 34(52) 3(55) X(55)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) X(19)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) 4(40) X(40)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 9(17) 1(18) X(18)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 17(27) 8(35) X(35) X(35)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 6( 6) 23(29) 14(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MONTEGO BAY 34 1 17(18) 28(46) 4(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
KINGSTON 34 2 50(52) 28(80) 2(82) X(82) X(82) X(82)
KINGSTON 50 X 12(12) 29(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
KINGSTON 64 X 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
LES CAYES 34 1 6( 7) 11(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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