Hurricane SANDY

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HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
 
NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN
SAMPLING THE CYCLONE THIS MORNING.  THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FOUND
AN AREA OF HURRICANE-FORCE SFMR WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER AND A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 91 KT.  A
DROPSONDE RELEASED FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT IN THE SAME AREA ALSO
SUPPORTED WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE.  THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT ALSO
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AROUND 956 MB FROM A DROPSONDE
AROUND 1200 UTC...BUT THE PRESSURE IS UP A COUPLE OF MILLIBARS ON
THE LATEST FIX.  BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INTENSITY WAS
INCREASED ON THE 8 AM INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AND SANDY IS ONCE AGAIN
A 65-KT HURRICANE.  WHILE SANDY COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE NHC FORECAST KEEPS THE CYCLONE AT
HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE
COULD INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY LATE SUNDAY...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE PREPVIOUS FORECAST.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN 
AFTER LANDFALL.
 
ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX SHOWS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS
MADE A JOG TO THE EAST DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE LONGER
TERM MOTION YIELDS AN INTIAL MOTION OF 030/8 KT.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS. 
AFTER THAT TIME...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW SHARP A
WESTWARD TURN THE CYCLONE MAKES BEFORE REACHING THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES.  SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFS...
SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 48
HOURS AND THEN A VERY HARD TURN TO THE WEST...MEANING THAT SANDY
WOULD LIKELY COME ASHORE MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST...RATHER THAN
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS SUGGESTED BY DRAWING A STRAIGHT LINE
BETWEEN THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS.  HAVING SAID THAT...IT
IS STILL TO SOON TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER...BOTH
BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND BECAUSE THE IMPACTS ARE GOING
TO COVER SUCH A LARGE AREA AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
 
NOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.  GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO FIRST REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SUNDAY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 29.0N  76.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 30.4N  75.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 32.2N  73.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 34.2N  72.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 36.4N  72.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 39.8N  77.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/1200Z 40.8N  77.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1200Z 43.8N  76.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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