Tropical Storm RAFAEL

ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012               
0300 UTC MON OCT 15 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       1       3       5       9
TROP DEPRESSION  X       1       2       6      11      18      25
TROPICAL STORM  48      37      41      53      56      56      52
HURRICANE       52      63      56      40      30      21      15
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       48      51      44      30      24      17      13
HUR CAT 2        3       9       9       7       5       3       1
HUR CAT 3        1       2       3       3       1       1       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       1       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   65KT    70KT    70KT    65KT    60KT    55KT    50KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   1(20)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   3(22)   X(22)   X(22)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
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