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Tropical Storm RAFAEL (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012               
0300 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       1       1       1       5      10
TROP DEPRESSION  2       2       4       3       6      20      26
TROPICAL STORM  85      68      53      44      47      56      50
HURRICANE       13      29      43      53      46      19      13
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       12      26      36      38      33      16      12
HUR CAT 2        1       3       5      11      10       2       1
HUR CAT 3        X       1       2       4       3       1       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       1       1       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    60KT    65KT    70KT    70KT    55KT    50KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  18(26)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  11(29)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   7(23)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   6(16)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   2(18)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  43(43)   1(44)   1(45)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   1(20)   X(20)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PONCE          34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN JUAN       34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34 12   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  7   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BARBUDA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ANTIGUA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:53 UTC