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Tropical Storm RAFAEL


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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
200 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
 
...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVES NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE 
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 63.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NW OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR 
GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H.  A NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
 
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS MORNING.
 
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WARNING AREA.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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