Hurricane RAFAEL

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
500 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
 
...RAFAEL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY THIS AFTERNOON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...26.6N 65.0W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST. RAFAEL 
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD PASS JUST EAST
OF BERMUDA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH A WEAKENING TREND LIKELY TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 
205 MILES...335 KM.  A NOAA BUOY LOCATED MORE THAN 150 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF RAFAEL RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH...91 KM/H.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
 
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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