Tropical Storm RAFAEL

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
 
...RAFAEL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...21.6N 64.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST.  RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA LATE TUESDAY.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
 
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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