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Tropical Storm RAFAEL (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
0900 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  65.3W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE  40SE  15SW  40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE  50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  65.3W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  65.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 23.9N  65.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.3N  65.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.6N  63.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.8N  60.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 42.6N  50.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 48.2N  35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 49.3N  24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N  65.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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