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Tropical Storm RAFAEL


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TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
0300 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  64.8W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE  60SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  64.8W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  64.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.8N  65.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  30SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.8N  65.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  30SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.5N  65.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.5N  62.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 40.5N  55.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 48.0N  39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 49.0N  26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N  64.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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