Hurricane RAFAEL

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HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
 
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED
THAT RAFAEL WAS MORE OR LESS MAINTINING ITS INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH
THE CYCLONE WAS BECOMING TILTED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT.
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE HELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE
TILT OF THE VORTEX SUGGESTS THAT WEAKENING WILL SOON OCCUR.  COOLER
WATERS LIE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD ALSO INDUCE
WEAKENING.  THE LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS RAFAEL BECOMING
EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE BY 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT ABOVE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24 HOURS...BASED ON THE PRESUMPTION
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE DERIVING SOME ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC
SOURCES.
 
RAFAEL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
NOW 030/25.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  RAFAEL OR ITS POST-TROPICAL
COUNTERPART SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE IN THE FLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND
ROTATE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS
PREDICTION...AS WELL AS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 32.4N  62.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 36.2N  59.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 40.9N  54.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 44.9N  46.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  19/0000Z 48.5N  36.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/0000Z 53.5N  31.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  21/0000Z 49.0N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  22/0000Z 43.0N  30.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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