Tropical Storm PATTY

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TROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162012
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PATTY CONTINUES TO
GENERATE A LARGE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...AN EARLIER
SSMIS PASS AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THE WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED ABOUT 60 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE NEAREST
DEEP CONVECTION AS A CONSEQUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ABRUPTLY DECREASED TO 2.0 FROM BOTH SATELLITE
AGENCIES...AND A BLEND OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS IS THE BASIS FOR
LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT.
 
PATTY IS NOT LIKELY TO HANG ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH
LONGER.  AN INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS WRAPPING
AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE STORM DUE ITS PROXIMITY TO A FRONT.
IN ADDITION...A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN EVEN STRONGER
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER PATTY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THESE FACTORS
SHOULD PROMOTE WEAKENING...AND PATTY IS LIKELY TO BE SHEARED APART
AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24-36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND A
BIT LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
 
SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF PATTY IS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST...OR 200/03...DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CYCLONE BEING PUSHED
SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND UKMET
MODELS THAT DISSIPATE THE STORM RELATIVELY SOON.  THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT A BIT FASTER TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 36 HOURS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0900Z 25.1N  72.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 24.9N  72.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 24.6N  73.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 24.3N  73.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/0600Z 23.9N  74.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0600Z 23.0N  78.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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