Hurricane MICHAEL

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HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
2100 UTC THU SEP 06 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N  41.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N  41.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N  41.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.1N  41.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 31.7N  41.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.2N  42.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 32.8N  42.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 34.0N  43.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 36.2N  45.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 40.0N  46.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N  41.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
 
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