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Tropical Storm MICHAEL (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012
 
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS VANISHED...AND MICHAEL CONSISTS OF A
TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. GIVEN THAT MICHAEL WAS A HURRICANE...AND
WINDS TAKE TIME TO SPIN DOWN...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS. IN FACT...THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT
ASCAT PASS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER
COOL WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SHEAR...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
IS ANTICIPATED...AND MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY. IT SHOULD THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN ABOUT 36
HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS.  MICHAEL IS BEING
STEERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE
EAST AND A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED
BY A FRONT.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1500Z 39.2N  47.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 43.0N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/1200Z 48.0N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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