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Hurricane MICHAEL (Text)

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HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
500 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012
 
MICHAEL CONTINUES TO BE A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A CLEAR
EYE...PERHAPS A LITTLE LARGER THAN BEFORE...AND A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC
OUTFLOW PATTERN.   SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT THE
SAME SO THE WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 90 KT.  MICHAEL WILL MOST
LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH OR SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER WATERS WITH
LIGHT SHEAR.  AN INCREASE IN SHEAR IS PROBABLE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN
THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS OUTFLOW FROM LESLIE...ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN HOW STRONG THE SHEAR WILL BE.  IN
ANY EVENT...THE SHEAR ALONG WITH MARGINAL SSTS SHOULD PROMOTE A
MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BETWEEN THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE LGEM MODEL.  I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF MICHAEL MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY BETTER THAN EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BASED ON ITS OVERACHIEVING HISTORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND IS A LITTLE
FASTER...335/5.  MICHAEL SHOULD EXECUTE A HARD LEFT TURN BY TOMORROW
AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  WHILE ALL MODELS
SHOW THIS CHANGE IN TRACK...THERE ARE LARGE SPEED DISAGREEMENTS THAT
MANIFEST THEMSELVES EVEN WITHIN 24H.  THESE DIFFERENCES CAUSE
MICHAEL TO EITHER COME CLOSE TO LESLIE...LIKE THE GFS...OR FOR A
MUCH SLOWER MOTION LIKE THE ECMWF SHOWS AS ONLY A MID-LATITUDE
RIDGE STEERS THE CYCLONE.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IT MUST BE
CONSIDERED AN UNCERTAIN PREDICTION.  DESPITE THE INITIAL
DISAGREEMENTS...ALL MODELS EITHER SHOW MICHAEL AS EXTRATROPICAL BY
DAY 5...OR ABSORPTION WITHIN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  I WILL STAY WITH
CONTINUITY AND SHOW DISSIPATION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 33.1N  42.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 33.6N  42.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 33.9N  43.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 34.0N  44.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 34.5N  45.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 41.0N  48.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 50.0N  44.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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