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Hurricane MICHAEL (Text)

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HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012
 
MICHAEL IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A
SMALL EYE THAT HAS RECENTLY WARMED AND BECOME MORE DISTINCT.   
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 90 KT...WHICH ALSO MATCHES
THE ADT ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS...SO THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO
THAT VALUE.  THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR MICHAEL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS IS PROBABLY ITS SLOW FORWARD MOTION...WHICH IS
UPWELLING SOME COOL WATER AND LIMITING ANY INTENISIFICATION.  THIS
CAN BE SEEN IN A RECENT BUOY NEAR THE CENTER THAT SHOWED AN SST OF
ABOUT 78F.  OTHERWISE...AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR AND GRADUALLY
COOLING SSTS SHOULD PROMOTE ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF WEAKENING DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR...PARTIALLY RELATED TO OUTFLOW FROM
LESLIE...ALONG WITH MICHAEL MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.  THUS A MORE
RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY IN A FEW DAYS...AND THE COLD WATER SHOULD
TURN MICHAEL INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.  THE NHC
FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST
24H...THEN IS BLENDED BACK WITH THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
A LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/4.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL HAVE A STRONGER RIDGE
THAN YESTERDAY...AND EVEN SHOWING A WESTWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATER ON...THIS HIGH SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO THE
EAST OF MICHAEL...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO THEN TURN TO THE NORTH AND
ACCELERATE BY DAYS 3-4.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
WESTWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. 
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN MICHAEL
AND LESLIE SO THAT MICHAEL IS STEERED QUICKLY TO THE NORTH INTO A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND ABSORBED IN ABOUT 5 DAYS TIME.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 32.6N  42.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 33.0N  42.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 33.4N  42.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 33.6N  43.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 33.8N  45.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 38.2N  48.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 48.0N  47.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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