Hurricane MICHAEL

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HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
500 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012
 
MICHAEL APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. A RAGGED EYE HAS
BEEN OCCASIONALLY EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS
LAST NIGHT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 85 KT...WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. ONLY
A LITTLE WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS
THE COMPACT HURRICANE REMAINS OVER 27 TO 28C WATERS AND IN A LOW
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE OUTFLOW OF LESLIE...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING MICHAEL IN 2
TO 3 DAYS AND SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MICHAEL MERGING WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST
OF LESLIE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CALLS FOR MICHAEL TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
BY DAY 4.
 
THE HURRICANE HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH RECENTLY...BUT A LONGER TERM
MOTION IS 330/4. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS MICHAEL REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING SURROUNDED BY A
TROUGH TO ITS NORTHEAST...A RIDGE TO IS SOUTHEAST...AND A
DEVELOPING RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY TO
THE NORTHWEST OF MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD...AND THAT WILL CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72 HOURS...MICHAEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND IN A
STRONG SOUTHERLY STEERING CURRENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
NORTHWARD ACCELERATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 3 AND 4 TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 32.2N  41.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 32.6N  42.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 33.1N  42.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 33.5N  43.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 33.9N  44.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 36.7N  47.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 45.0N  47.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  13/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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