| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Hurricane MICHAEL (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
1100 PM AST THU SEP 06 2012
 
THE CONVECTIVE COLD TOPS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE LESS SYMMETRIC AROUND
THE EYE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATE THAT MICHAEL POSSESSES A THIN BUT CLOSED EYEWALL.  DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 90 KT FROM TAFB AND 77 KT FROM
SAB...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.9/5.2.  THE
INTENSITY IS LOWERED A BIT TO 90 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA.

MICHAEL HAS FOUND ITSELF STUCK BETWEEN TWO MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...
EACH ROUGHLY EQUIDISTANT TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
HURRICANE.  THE COMPETING FLOWS AROUND THE LOWS HAVE CAUSED MICHAEL
TO SLOW DOWN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 025/4 KT. 
THE STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEAK...AND MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO CREEP NORTHWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN
AGREE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD BY DAY 5 AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF HURRICANE LESLIE.  THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 21Z FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS...AND IS THEN
A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND FASTER BY DAY 5 TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCA.

ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS...MICHAEL SHOULD BE IN A
RELATIVELY SHEAR-FREE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 
HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
COMPLEX...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OUTFLOW FROM LESLIE COULD
AFFECT MICHAEL SOONER THAN SHOWN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING
THE NEXT 4 DAYS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. 
FASTER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY DAY 5 ONCE THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
BECOMES DECIDEDLY STRONGER...AND MICHAEL COULD BE CLOSE TO BEING
EXTRATROPICAL BY THAT TIME AS WELL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 30.8N  40.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 31.2N  40.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 31.7N  41.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 32.3N  42.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 33.0N  42.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 34.5N  44.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 36.5N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 43.0N  47.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN