Hurricane MICHAEL

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HURRICANE MICHAEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012
 
MICHAEL HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED WITH A SMALL WELL-DEFINED EYE
BECOMING EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS SET TO 90 KT...IN LINE WITH SPECIAL 0415 UTC DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD...AND IS
CLOSEST TO THE EXPERIMENTAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BASED OFF OF THE
ECMWF FIELDS. THE FORECAST IS THEN BLENDED BACK TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
BY DAY 5. NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST WERE REQUIRED...AND ONLY
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII WERE REQUIRED THROUGH 36 H.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0500Z 29.4N  42.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 29.8N  41.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 30.5N  41.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 31.0N  41.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 31.5N  42.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 32.7N  43.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 34.0N  44.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 35.5N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
 
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