Tropical Storm ISAAC
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TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
2100 UTC WED AUG 29 2012
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 4 21 41 72 92 96
TROP DEPRESSION 4 35 50 52 28 8 4
TROPICAL STORM 90 59 29 7 X X X
HURRICANE 6 3 X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 5 3 X X X X X
HUR CAT 2 1 X X X X X X
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 40KT 30KT 25KT 20KT 15KT 15KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PENSACOLA FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MOBILE AL 34 7 X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
STENNIS MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
JACKSON MS 34 22 5(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 3 14(17) 8(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
GALVESTON TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HOUSTON TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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