Hurricane ISAAC
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
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HURRICANE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0900 UTC WED AUG 29 2012
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 22 41 66 88 94
TROP DEPRESSION X 13 49 39 34 12 6
TROPICAL STORM 55 74 27 20 X X X
HURRICANE 45 12 2 X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 42 10 2 X X X X
HUR CAT 2 2 1 X X X X X
HUR CAT 3 1 X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 50KT 30KT 25KT 20KT 15KT 15KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PENSACOLA FL 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MOBILE AL 34 20 2(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GULFPORT MS 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
STENNIS SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
STENNIS SC 50 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
STENNIS SC 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BURAS LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BURAS LA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
JACKSON MS 34 16 10(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 89 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 26 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 53 18(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 7 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 34 19(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 16 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 4 7(11) 6(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22)
SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 12 10(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
GALVESTON TX 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
HOUSTON TX 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
FREEPORT TX 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PORT O CONNOR 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
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