Hurricane ISAAC
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HURRICANE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0300 UTC WED AUG 29 2012
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 14 40 66 87 94
TROP DEPRESSION X 6 45 40 34 13 6
TROPICAL STORM 55 74 38 21 1 X X
HURRICANE 45 19 3 X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 42 16 3 X X X X
HUR CAT 2 2 2 X X X X X
HUR CAT 3 1 1 X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 55KT 35KT 25KT 20KT 15KT 15KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
APALACHICOLA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PENSACOLA FL 34 11 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MOBILE AL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GULFPORT MS 50 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
STENNIS SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
STENNIS SC 50 34 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
STENNIS SC 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BURAS LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BURAS LA 64 89 X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
JACKSON MS 34 18 14(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 84 4(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 27 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 88 9(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 24 35(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 2 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 81 11(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 8 25(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 12 5(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 4 6(10) 5(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 8 11(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
GALVESTON TX 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
HOUSTON TX 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
FREEPORT TX 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
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