Tropical Storm ISAAC
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TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0300 UTC TUE AUG 28 2012
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 5 38 58 81
TROP DEPRESSION X 2 3 21 39 39 19
TROPICAL STORM 30 25 47 55 23 3 X
HURRICANE 70 73 49 19 1 X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 64 52 36 14 1 X X
HUR CAT 2 5 16 10 3 X X X
HUR CAT 3 1 5 3 2 X X X
HUR CAT 4 X 1 1 X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 80KT 65KT 50KT 30KT 25KT 20KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
VENICE FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
TAMPA FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 5 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 7 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
ST MARKS FL 34 8 5(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
APALACHICOLA 34 21 7(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 32 4(36) 2(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 30 8(38) 3(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
COLUMBUS GA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 5 9(14) 6(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23)
PENSACOLA FL 34 44 19(63) 4(67) 1(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69)
PENSACOLA FL 50 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 16 8(24) X(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MOBILE AL 34 41 31(72) 6(78) 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
MOBILE AL 50 1 11(12) 9(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
MOBILE AL 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GULFPORT MS 34 47 38(85) 6(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
GULFPORT MS 50 1 24(25) 21(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
GULFPORT MS 64 X 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
STENNIS SC 34 42 44(86) 8(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
STENNIS SC 50 1 23(24) 29(53) 3(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57)
STENNIS SC 64 X 5( 5) 17(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
BURAS LA 34 73 25(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BURAS LA 50 2 63(65) 15(80) 2(82) X(82) X(82) X(82)
BURAS LA 64 X 26(26) 16(42) X(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 38 34(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 5 21(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
JACKSON MS 34 4 18(22) 21(43) 8(51) 6(57) X(57) X(57)
JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 35 51(86) 9(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 1(96)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 1 18(19) 35(54) 5(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X 2( 2) 19(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 20 28(48) 8(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 1 5( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 9 44(53) 27(80) 5(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 4( 4) 19(23) 9(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 5 31(36) 26(62) 6(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 3 5( 8) 9(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 7(21) X(21) X(21)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 6(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22)
GALVESTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
HOUSTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
FREEPORT TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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