Tropical Storm ISAAC
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
2100 UTC SUN AUG 26 2012
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 1 7 48 73
TROP DEPRESSION 2 3 2 4 3 31 20
TROPICAL STORM 85 68 41 33 36 14 5
HURRICANE 13 29 56 63 55 7 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 12 25 44 38 38 5 1
HUR CAT 2 1 3 9 17 12 1 1
HUR CAT 3 1 1 3 7 4 1 X
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 1 1 X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 70KT 80KT 85KT 30KT 20KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MAYPORT NS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ORLANDO FL 34 8 4(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 7 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
PATRICK AFB 34 7 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
FT PIERCE FL 34 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
W PALM BEACH 34 14 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
MIAMI FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MARATHON FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MARATHON FL 50 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
KEY WEST FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
KEY WEST FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MARCO ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FT MYERS FL 34 48 1(49) 2(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
VENICE FL 34 37 5(42) 2(44) 1(45) X(45) 1(46) X(46)
TAMPA FL 34 18 8(26) 3(29) 2(31) X(31) 1(32) X(32)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 7 8(15) 5(20) 3(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 7( 7) 10(17) 6(23) 6(29) 1(30) X(30)
ST MARKS FL 34 1 9(10) 9(19) 6(25) 5(30) 1(31) 1(32)
APALACHICOLA 34 3 11(14) 16(30) 9(39) 7(46) 1(47) X(47)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 7 18(25) 17(42) 7(49) 4(53) 1(54) X(54)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 11(12) 20(32) 13(45) 7(52) 1(53) 1(54)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 11(20) 2(22) 1(23)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 18(35) 3(38) 1(39)
MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X 6( 6) 24(30) 25(55) 14(69) 2(71) X(71)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 12(28) 1(29) 1(30)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 19(21) 45(66) 14(80) 3(83) 1(84) X(84)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 1( 1) 24(25) 18(43) 3(46) 1(47) X(47)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19)
MOBILE AL 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 31(56) 20(76) 2(78) X(78)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 21(38) 2(40) X(40)
MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) X(16)
GULFPORT MS 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 33(58) 21(79) 2(81) X(81)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 22(43) 2(45) X(45)
GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 2(20) X(20)
STENNIS SC 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 32(53) 23(76) 3(79) 1(80)
STENNIS SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 22(38) 2(40) X(40)
STENNIS SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17)
BURAS LA 34 X 5( 5) 29(34) 33(67) 14(81) 2(83) 1(84)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 15(45) 2(47) X(47)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) 1(21) X(21)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 13(13) 47(60) 18(78) 5(83) 1(84) X(84)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 23(23) 19(42) 5(47) 1(48) X(48)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 4(21) X(21) 1(22)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 33(47) 6(53) 1(54)
JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16)
JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 29(46) 23(69) 3(72) 1(73)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 18(29) 3(32) 1(33)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 17(33) 11(44) 3(47) X(47)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) 24(51) 6(57) X(57)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19) X(19)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 20(39) 7(46) X(46)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) 1(13)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 9(18) 3(21) 1(22)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 1(17)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 5(18) X(18)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HAVANA 34 68 X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
ISLE OF PINES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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