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TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1500 UTC SUN AUG 26 2012
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 1 4 50 73
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 2 2 3 29 17
TROPICAL STORM 56 42 33 33 35 13 5
HURRICANE 44 57 66 65 59 7 5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 40 48 48 41 38 5 3
HUR CAT 2 3 7 13 16 14 2 1
HUR CAT 3 1 2 4 7 6 1 1
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 1 1 X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 70KT 75KT 80KT 90KT 30KT 20KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MAYPORT NS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 8 6(14) 2(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
ORLANDO FL 34 17 8(25) 4(29) 1(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 17 5(22) 2(24) X(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25)
PATRICK AFB 34 17 5(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
FT PIERCE FL 34 27 3(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
W PALM BEACH 34 45 1(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
MIAMI FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MARATHON FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MARATHON FL 50 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
MARATHON FL 64 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
KEY WEST FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
KEY WEST FL 50 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
KEY WEST FL 64 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
MARCO ISLAND 34 88 1(89) X(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
MARCO ISLAND 50 18 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
FT MYERS FL 34 75 3(78) 1(79) X(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80)
FT MYERS FL 50 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
VENICE FL 34 64 10(74) 1(75) 1(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77)
VENICE FL 50 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
TAMPA FL 34 33 15(48) 5(53) 2(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 9 14(23) 10(33) 4(37) 3(40) X(40) 1(41)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 8( 8) 14(22) 8(30) 8(38) 2(40) X(40)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ST MARKS FL 34 1 10(11) 15(26) 7(33) 8(41) 1(42) X(42)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
APALACHICOLA 34 2 14(16) 26(42) 12(54) 7(61) 1(62) X(62)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 5 26(31) 29(60) 7(67) 4(71) 1(72) 1(73)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17) 1(18)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 12(12) 26(38) 19(57) 9(66) 1(67) 1(68)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 6(16) X(16) 1(17)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 15(25) 2(27) X(27)
COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 24(41) 4(45) 1(46)
MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X 4( 4) 22(26) 30(56) 20(76) 2(78) X(78)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 20(32) 3(35) X(35)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 17(17) 45(62) 23(85) 5(90) 1(91) X(91)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 13(13) 35(48) 8(56) 1(57) X(57)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 7(28) X(28) 1(29)
MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 30(47) 29(76) 3(79) 1(80)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 28(36) 4(40) 1(41)
MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) 1(19)
GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 31(44) 30(74) 4(78) 1(79)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) 5(41) X(41)
GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18)
STENNIS SC 34 X X( X) 11(11) 27(38) 33(71) 5(76) X(76)
STENNIS SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 4(34) 1(35)
STENNIS SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) 1(17)
BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 31(46) 25(71) 3(74) X(74)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 24(33) 4(37) X(37)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 6( 6) 24(30) 26(56) 10(66) 3(69) X(69)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 10(31) 2(33) X(33)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) 1(15)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 36(44) 9(53) X(53)
JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) X(17)
JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) 30(59) 6(65) 1(66)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 4(26) X(26)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) 1(11)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 14(32) 4(36) 1(37)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 30(44) 7(51) 1(52)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 22(31) 6(37) 1(38)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 2(16)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 2(15)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 14 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ANDROS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
HAVANA 34 28 5(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
ISLE OF PINES 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CIENFUEGOS 34 15 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
CAMAGUEY 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:27 UTC