Tropical Storm ISAAC
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0300 UTC SUN AUG 26 2012
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 1 1 7 16 58
TROP DEPRESSION 2 2 2 1 13 25 24
TROPICAL STORM 85 56 32 20 34 41 8
HURRICANE 12 41 66 78 46 18 10
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 11 35 48 43 25 11 4
HUR CAT 2 1 5 14 21 13 4 3
HUR CAT 3 X 2 4 11 6 2 2
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 3 2 1 X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 65KT 75KT 85KT 90KT 50KT 25KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 2(20)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 2(15)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 8(19) 6(25) 1(26)
MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
MAYPORT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 10(23) 5(28) 1(29)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 6( 6) 9(15) 7(22) 6(28) 4(32) 1(33)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
ORLANDO FL 34 1 11(12) 15(27) 7(34) 5(39) 2(41) 1(42)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 12(13) 11(24) 5(29) 3(32) 2(34) X(34)
PATRICK AFB 34 1 12(13) 11(24) 5(29) 4(33) 1(34) 1(35)
FT PIERCE FL 34 5 17(22) 9(31) 4(35) 2(37) X(37) 1(38)
W PALM BEACH 34 12 27(39) 6(45) 3(48) 1(49) X(49) 1(50)
W PALM BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MIAMI FL 34 34 34(68) 3(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) 1(73)
MIAMI FL 50 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MARATHON FL 34 48 47(95) X(95) X(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96)
MARATHON FL 50 1 61(62) 4(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
MARATHON FL 64 X 15(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
KEY WEST FL 34 18 71(89) 2(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
KEY WEST FL 50 X 52(52) 10(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
KEY WEST FL 64 X 14(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
MARCO ISLAND 34 10 62(72) 11(83) 1(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X 15(15) 19(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
MARCO ISLAND 64 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
FT MYERS FL 34 4 48(52) 21(73) 3(76) 1(77) X(77) 1(78)
FT MYERS FL 50 X 3( 3) 18(21) 1(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
VENICE FL 34 2 33(35) 33(68) 7(75) 2(77) X(77) X(77)
VENICE FL 50 X 1( 1) 18(19) 5(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
TAMPA FL 34 X 16(16) 29(45) 12(57) 7(64) 1(65) X(65)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) 1(14)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 5( 5) 19(24) 21(45) 14(59) 2(61) 1(62)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 1(15)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) 29(55) 5(60) 1(61)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 5(18) 1(19)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 23(32) 27(59) 4(63) 1(64)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 4(20) 2(22)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 12(12) 35(47) 28(75) 4(79) 1(80)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 29(35) 4(39) 1(40)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) 1(18)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) 39(62) 21(83) 2(85) X(85)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 28(48) 3(51) 1(52)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 3(27) X(27)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) 36(74) 6(80) 1(81)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 5(40) 2(42)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) 1(20)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 16(37) 2(39)
COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
COLUMBUS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 18(45) 1(46)
MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10)
MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 42(60) 12(72) 1(73)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 11(34) 2(36)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 34(43) 35(78) 5(83) X(83)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 35(43) 7(50) 1(51)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 4(26) 1(27)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 33(42) 17(59) 1(60)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) 1(24)
MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 28(35) 16(51) 1(52)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 2(19)
GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7)
STENNIS SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 14(42) 1(43)
STENNIS SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14)
STENNIS SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 11(42) 2(44)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 22(36) 8(44) 1(45)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) 1(14)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 1(22)
JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 10(30) 3(33)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 6(17) 1(18)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) 3(22)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 2(16)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 16 12(28) 3(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) 1(33)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 42 2(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
ANDROS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ANDROS 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAN SALVADOR 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
HAVANA 34 2 21(23) 11(34) 2(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37)
HAVANA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CIENFUEGOS 34 4 17(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
CAMAGUEY 34 53 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: