ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 0900 UTC FRI AUG 24 2012 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 5 11 14 17 23 TROP DEPRESSION 5 21 22 29 16 13 6 TROPICAL STORM 89 71 66 51 53 42 41 HURRICANE 7 7 7 9 17 29 30 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 6 6 8 14 22 24 HUR CAT 2 1 1 1 1 2 5 6 HUR CAT 3 X X X X 1 2 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 55KT 65KT 75KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) 2(20) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 1(16) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 1(16) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) X(19) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 4(22) X(22) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 3(32) X(32) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 33(38) 3(41) X(41) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 5(40) 1(41) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 8(38) 1(39) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 10(34) 1(35) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 15(34) 2(36) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) 2(30) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 3(25) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 10(24) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 9(27) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 10(33) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 8(37) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 11(32) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15(28) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 11(36) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) STENNIS SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) STENNIS SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) STENNIS SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 11(26) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) X(15) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAYAGUANA 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND TURK 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 4(26) X(26) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 12(24) X(24) X(24) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 21(22) 19(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 25(27) 34(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGSTON 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LES CAYES 34 28 44(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) LES CAYES 50 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LES CAYES 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 59 24(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE BEATA 34 95 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) CAPE BEATA 50 16 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CAPE BEATA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 19 5(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SANTO DOMINGO 34 54 X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:27 UTC