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Tropical Storm ISAAC (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012               
2100 UTC TUE AUG 21 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1       1       2       1       4       7       6
TROP DEPRESSION 11      15      12       5       7       8       7
TROPICAL STORM  86      75      70      49      41      41      45
HURRICANE        2       9      16      45      49      45      42
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2       8      14      33      34      32      30
HUR CAT 2        X       1       2       8      10       9      10
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       3       5       4       3
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       1       1       1       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    45KT    50KT    65KT    75KT    75KT    65KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
CURACAO        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  15(24)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  10(17)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   5(22)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)   1(19)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  22(31)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)
CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  35(37)  10(47)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   5(17)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  14(27)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)  10(30)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  37(51)   3(54)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)   1(22)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)  29(53)   1(54)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)   X(21)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  45(46)  15(61)   X(61)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   9(27)   X(27)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   X(11)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)  11(31)   X(31)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  38(45)   3(48)   X(48)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   2(14)   X(14)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  40(43)  11(54)   X(54)   X(54)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   7(18)   X(18)   X(18)
PONCE          64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  33(36)   6(42)   X(42)   X(42)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
SAN JUAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  30(37)   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)  14(14)  38(52)   2(54)   X(54)   X(54)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   1( 1)  22(23)   8(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   2( 2)  42(44)   6(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   5( 5)  28(33)   2(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   7( 7)  42(49)   1(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X  12(12)  48(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   1( 1)  15(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
GUADELOUPE     64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AVES           34  X   1( 1)  27(28)  16(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
AVES           50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
AVES           64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   7( 7)  24(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
DOMINICA       50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
DOMINICA       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   4( 4)   6(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:27 UTC