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Tropical Storm ISAAC


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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
700 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012
 
...ISAAC EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE SOON...SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE
AND FLOOD THREAT FROM RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 86.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE AUCILLA RIVER
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF SABINE PASS TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
A SLIGHT DECREASE IS FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL MOVE OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR 
TUESDAY NIGHT. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AIR
FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 981 MB...28.97
INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
 
* SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...6 TO 12 FT
* ALABAMA...6 TO 9 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST INCLUDING APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
 
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED STORM MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE EXTREME WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
 
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
 
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE FLORIDA COASTLINE AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TONIGHT.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
 
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