Tropical Depression SEVEN
ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
0300 UTC FRI AUG 10 2012
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 4 5 4 7 10 13
TROP DEPRESSION 33 38 26 19 22 23 27
TROPICAL STORM 64 55 63 62 57 55 49
HURRICANE 1 3 6 15 14 12 11
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 3 5 12 12 11 9
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 2 2 1 1
HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 45KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11)
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) X(15)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) X(21)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 1(31) X(31)
AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) X(36) X(36)
DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) X(38) X(38)
MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) X(28) X(28)
SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17)
SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20)
BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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