Tropical Storm ERNESTO

ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28...CORRECTED               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012               
0900 UTC WED AUG 08 2012

CORRECTED HEADER FROM HURRICANE TO TROPICAL STORM                                           
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1       2       4       5      49      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION 23      11      13      10      26      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM  75      69      50      64      17      NA      NA
HURRICANE        1      18      34      20       8      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1      16      28      17       6      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2        X       1       5       2       2      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       1       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    55KT    65KT    55KT    20KT    NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  13(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   3( 3)  38(41)  25(66)   2(68)   X(68)   X(68)
VERACRUZ MX    50  X   X( X)   9( 9)  19(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
VERACRUZ MX    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  1  57(58)   5(63)   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
FRONTERA MX    64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MERIDA MX      34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BELIZE         34 88   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
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