Tropical Storm ERNESTO
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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
0900 UTC SUN AUG 05 2012
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 2 3 10 18 26
TROP DEPRESSION 7 10 10 12 15 21 15
TROPICAL STORM 89 77 67 57 41 46 40
HURRICANE 4 12 22 29 35 16 19
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 3 11 19 23 25 13 16
HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 4 7 2 2
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 2 1 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 75KT 60KT 65KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16)
FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) 3(33)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11)
MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 9(36) 1(37)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 1(14)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 8(31) X(31)
BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11)
BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 23(38) 2(40) X(40)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 2(17) X(17)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN ANDRES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18)
MONTEGO BAY 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
KINGSTON 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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