Tropical Storm ERNESTO
ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
0900 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 1 1 2 7 13
TROP DEPRESSION 2 3 4 4 6 11 17
TROPICAL STORM 85 68 53 45 43 40 46
HURRICANE 13 29 43 50 50 43 24
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 12 25 35 36 34 29 19
HUR CAT 2 1 3 5 10 11 10 4
HUR CAT 3 1 1 2 4 4 3 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 1 1 X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 65KT 70KT 75KT 80KT 70KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 10(41)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 7(23)
BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) 2(27)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PT GALLINAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 6(31)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 12(23) 2(25)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) 5(43) 1(44)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) 5(32) X(32) X(32)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
KINGSTON 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) 13(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
LES CAYES 34 X 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CAPE BEATA 34 2 8(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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