Tropical Depression FIVE
ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
0900 UTC THU AUG 02 2012
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 3 8 8 7 7 8 8
TROP DEPRESSION 57 48 35 27 23 20 14
TROPICAL STORM 39 42 53 56 56 55 53
HURRICANE 1 2 5 10 14 17 25
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 2 4 8 12 14 20
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 2 2 4
HUR CAT 3 X X X X 1 1 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 35KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 60KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 7(22)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 2(19)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 1(16)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) X(21)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) 1(13)
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
AVES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23)
AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
MARTINIQUE 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
BARBADOS 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
GRENADA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN
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