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Hurricane ERNESTO (Text)

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HURRICANE ERNESTO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1800 UTC TUE AUG 07 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS INCLUDED THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CABO CATOCHE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  85.5W AT 07/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  45SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  85.5W AT 07/1800Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  84.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.0N  86.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE  60SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.4N  89.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.4N  91.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.4N  93.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.2N  96.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 19.0N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N  85.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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