Tropical Storm ERNESTO

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
0300 UTC MON AUG 06 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  79.7W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE  80SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  45SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  79.7W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  79.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N  81.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.1N  83.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.1N  85.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.9N  87.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.0N  91.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 20.0N  95.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 20.5N  98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N  79.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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