Hurricane ERNESTO

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HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
ERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SCHEDULED FOR A 0000 UTC FIX.  GIVEN
THE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.  RESTRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED WHEN ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT RAPID
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL IN
MEXICO DUE TO VERY HIGH TERRAIN.  ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT ERNESTO COULD REGENERATE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
THAT UNUSUAL EVENT IS NOT BEING PREDICTED AT THIS TIME.
 
BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES...THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...300/13...CONTINUES.  DYNAMICAL TRACK
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH ERNESTO
MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE CENTER HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH THAN EXPECTED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE NEW ECMWF TRACK.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 18.8N  86.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 19.4N  88.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 24H  08/1800Z 19.7N  90.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/0600Z 19.8N  92.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  09/1800Z 19.8N  94.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  10/1800Z 19.5N  97.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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