Tropical Storm DEBBY
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TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
2100 UTC MON JUN 25 2012
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 5 12 19 26 38 41
TROP DEPRESSION 23 35 38 36 28 29 24
TROPICAL STORM 74 57 47 41 41 31 32
HURRICANE 2 3 4 5 5 3 4
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 3 3 4 5 2 3
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 X X X
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 30KT 30KT 35KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9)
ATLANTA GA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
AUGUSTA GA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
SAVANNAH GA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 1(14)
MAYPORT NS 34 4 3( 7) 3(10) 3(13) 7(20) 3(23) 1(24)
MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
JACKSONVILLE 34 5 3( 8) 3(11) 4(15) 7(22) 2(24) 1(25)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 4 4( 8) 3(11) 5(16) 6(22) 3(25) 1(26)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ORLANDO FL 34 6 3( 9) 3(12) 4(16) 5(21) 2(23) 1(24)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 5(15) 3(18) 1(19)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PATRICK AFB 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 5(15) 3(18) 1(19)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 1(15)
W PALM BEACH 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
MARCO ISLAND 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
FT MYERS FL 34 4 2( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15)
VENICE FL 34 10 4(14) 2(16) 2(18) 4(22) 2(24) X(24)
TAMPA FL 34 22 6(28) 4(32) 3(35) 3(38) 1(39) 1(40)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 37 9(46) 6(52) 2(54) 3(57) 1(58) X(58)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ST MARKS FL 34 51 9(60) 4(64) 1(65) 2(67) 2(69) X(69)
ST MARKS FL 50 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12)
ST MARKS FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
APALACHICOLA 50 5 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
APALACHICOLA 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 52 16(68) 4(72) X(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 6 5(11) 2(13) X(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
COLUMBUS GA 34 3 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) X(10) 1(11)
PENSACOLA FL 34 6 4(10) 3(13) 3(16) 2(18) 1(19) 1(20)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 6 5(11) 5(16) 3(19) 2(21) 1(22) X(22)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MOBILE AL 34 2 1( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11)
GULFPORT MS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
STENNIS SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN
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