Tropical Storm DEBBY
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
0900 UTC SUN JUN 24 2012
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 2 2 10 22 38
TROP DEPRESSION 3 11 10 12 18 18 17
TROPICAL STORM 90 77 68 57 48 35 29
HURRICANE 7 12 21 29 25 25 17
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 6 10 17 23 19 18 13
HUR CAT 2 1 1 3 4 4 6 3
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 2 1 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 65KT 70KT 70KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
FT MYERS FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
VENICE FL 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 1(13)
TAMPA FL 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 2(13) 1(14)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 5 2( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 3(14) 1(15) 1(16)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 5 4( 9) 4(13) 2(15) 3(18) 1(19) 1(20)
ST MARKS FL 34 6 3( 9) 4(13) 3(16) 3(19) 1(20) 2(22)
APALACHICOLA 34 13 8(21) 6(27) 4(31) 4(35) 2(37) 1(38)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 24 7(31) 6(37) 4(41) 3(44) 2(46) 1(47)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 12 9(21) 7(28) 5(33) 4(37) 2(39) 1(40)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 3(13) 1(14) 1(15)
PENSACOLA FL 34 7 9(16) 11(27) 6(33) 7(40) 3(43) 1(44)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 39 17(56) 11(67) 3(70) 5(75) 1(76) 1(77)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 1 7( 8) 5(13) 4(17) 3(20) 1(21) 1(22)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
MOBILE AL 34 3 7(10) 12(22) 8(30) 7(37) 4(41) 1(42)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GULFPORT MS 34 3 6( 9) 15(24) 9(33) 9(42) 4(46) 2(48)
GULFPORT MS 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 1(12)
GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
STENNIS SC 34 2 6( 8) 13(21) 11(32) 10(42) 4(46) 2(48)
STENNIS SC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11)
STENNIS SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
BURAS LA 34 3 10(13) 19(32) 14(46) 11(57) 4(61) 2(63)
BURAS LA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 7(19) 2(21) 1(22)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 11 17(28) 19(47) 8(55) 9(64) 4(68) 1(69)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 1 4( 5) 7(12) 8(20) 6(26) 3(29) 1(30)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)
JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 3(15) X(15)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 4( 6) 12(18) 11(29) 13(42) 4(46) 2(48)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 3( 5) 10(15) 13(28) 15(43) 7(50) 2(52)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 4(18) 2(20)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 7(17) 12(29) 4(33) 2(35)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 1( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 14(28) 6(34) 3(37)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 15(24) 10(34) 3(37)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 2(13)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 7(21) 3(24)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) 9(20) 4(24)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 3(17)
HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 4(21)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 10(20) 4(24)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 5(17)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 5(17)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: