Tropical Depression BERYL
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1500 UTC TUE MAY 29 2012
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 9 17 19 19 21 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 73 51 35 21 19 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 17 32 45 54 50 NA NA
HURRICANE X 1 2 7 10 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 1 2 6 8 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 2 NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 25KT 30KT 35KT 40KT 40KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
CHARLESTON SC 34 1 13(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
AUGUSTA GA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAVANNAH GA 34 6 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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