Tropical Depression BERYL
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
WHILE MOST OF THE CIRCULATION OF BERYL IS INLAND...THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RATHER SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD IN ADDITION TO
WELL-DEFINED BANDING AS OBSERVED BY THE WSR-88D RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. PEAK WINDS IN THIS SYSTEM...NEAR 25 KT...HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA COASTS
AS MEASURED BY SOME WEATHERFLOW WEATHER STATIONS.
BERYL IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320/3. AS A VIGOROUS
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES THE
CYCLONE...BERYL WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN ABOUT A DAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN ACCELERATE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEREAFTER. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
TVCA CONSENSUS MODEL.
AS LONG AS IT MAINTAINS ITS DEEP CONVECTION...BERYL IS ANTICIPATED
TO REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHILE IT IS
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BERYL SHOULD BE REACHING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AGAIN. THERE
IS A NARROW SWATH OF WARM OCEAN WITHIN THE GULF STREAM BETWEEN THE
COOL SHELF WATERS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BERYL
HAS ABOUT A DAY OF TRAVERSING THE GULF STREAM WHILE THE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS MODERATE TO ALLOW SOME REINTENSIFICATION BACK TO A
TROPICAL STORM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO A BLEND
OF THE LGEM STATISTICAL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEPICTED BY THE FSU
CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS. ABSORPTION OF BERYL INTO A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS INDICATED AFTER FOUR DAYS CONSISTENT WITH
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. HOWEVER...OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THAT
BERYL MAY BECOME THE DOMINANT VORTEX AND REMAIN INTACT LONGER.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING BERYL CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY
RAINS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 30.8N 83.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 29/1200Z 31.3N 83.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/0000Z 32.1N 81.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1200Z 33.2N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0000Z 34.6N 76.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 01/0000Z 37.5N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/0000Z 40.0N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER LANDSEA
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