Tropical Storm BERYL

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TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
 
BERYL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BANDS
ALL AROUND THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
CONTRACTED AND DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS NOW BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS CHANGE IN STATUS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE FSU PHASE SPACE ANALYSIS OF GFS FIELDS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 55 KT AT 18Z BASED ON A T3.5
FROM TAFB AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST
AIRCRAFT MISSION. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF ITS INTENSITY SHORTLY.
 
BERYL CONTINUES MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL TONIGHT AS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN STEERING MECHANISM. AFTER LANDFALL...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN
AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE AND SHOWS THE
CENTER OF BERYL REMAINING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FOR AT LEAST 36 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE IN TWO TO THREE DAYS AND THEN ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
 
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN BELOW...BERYL COULD GET A LITTLE
STRONGER BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. AFTER
LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND BERYL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RESTRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE ONCE BERYL MOVES BACK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN TWO
TO THREE DAYS. COOLER WATERS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...
AND THE INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD
CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 30.0N  80.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 30.0N  81.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  28/1800Z 30.2N  82.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/0600Z 30.6N  83.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  29/1800Z 31.6N  82.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  30/1800Z 33.8N  77.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  31/1800Z 37.5N  68.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
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FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
 
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