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Tropical Depression ALBERTO (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012
1100 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012
 
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FINALLY TAKING ITS TOLL
ON ALBERTO. THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IS RESTRICTED TO THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE DEPRESSION AND BARELY MEETS THE CRITERIA
TO KEEP ALBERTO CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T1.5 FROM SAB. THE LAST RECON PASS
THROUGH ALBERTO AROUND 21Z INDICATED THE STRONGEST SURFACE AND
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...AND THE
LACK OF CONVECTION IN THAT PART OF THE CYCLONE FURTHER JUSTIFIES 
DOWNGRADING ALBERTO TO DEPRESSION STATUS. NOAA BUOY 41002 DIRECTLY
AHEAD OF ALBERTO SHOULD PROVIDE SOME GROUND TRUTH LATER TONIGHT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/11. ALTHOUGH ALBERTO HAS BEEN
MOVING MORE EASTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO
BE STARTING TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE MORE
EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION. OTHERWISE THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ALBERTO TO
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND GFS MODELS...WHICH
KEEP THE CYCLONE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
 
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 50 KT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH...ALONG WITH SSTS DECREASING TO
LESS THAN 22C...SHOULD CONTINUE THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND...AND IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT ALBERTO COULD DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z 30.9N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 32.1N  75.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 34.2N  72.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 36.3N  70.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  24/0000Z 38.3N  67.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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