ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011 1500 UTC THU OCT 13 2011 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.2W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 160SE 170SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.2W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 107.5W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.7N 106.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.2N 105.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.2N 105.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.2N 105.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.0N 107.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 15.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 107.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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