ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011 200 AM PDT THU OCT 13 2011 ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH IRWIN...AND THE SYSTEM IS ON THE VERGE OF LOSING THE CONVECTIVE REQUIREMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE BEING KEPT AT 30 KT DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING ENTRAINED WITHIN THE BACKGROUND 20-25 KT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE ITCZ. WHILE THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF RESTRENGTHENING IN A FEW DAYS...THE GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN BACKING OFF ON THIS SOLUTION. THEREFORE...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE. IRWIN CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW ABOUT 11 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SHALLOW SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE REMNANTS OF IRWIN ARE FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY TURN BACK TO THE WEST DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO BE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEW TRACK OF IRWIN DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 18.3N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 18.6N 106.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 18.2N 105.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/1800Z 17.4N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0600Z 16.4N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0600Z 15.0N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0600Z 15.0N 108.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0600Z 15.5N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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